Global tourism growth loses momentum
Global tourism continued to grow in the first half of 2026, but the recovery is losing momentum as geopolitical tensions, travel disruptions and higher costs weigh on international travel.
An estimated 690 million tourists travelled internationally between January and June, about three million more than in the same period last year, according to the latest World Tourism Barometer published by UN Tourism.
However, the modest increase masks a slowdown. International arrivals rose by 2% in the first quarter before falling by 1% in the second quarter, including a 3% decline in April.
The pressure continued into June, when global arrivals dropped by 3%. Western Europe recorded a 6% decline, partly attributed to a heatwave affecting some destinations, while South-East Asia saw arrivals fall by 5%.
The decline in South-East Asia was linked to weaker demand from Asian markets, geopolitical tensions, disruptions to air travel through the Middle East and higher travel costs. Some destinations in Oceania also recorded a 6% drop in June, partly due to the effects of Typhoon Sinlaku during the second quarter.
UN Tourism secretary-general Shaikha Al Nuwais said the figures reflected an industry continuing to grow despite mounting pressure, but warned that the outlook remained fragile. “The latest data shows a sector absorbing real pressure and finding a way forward. Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile,” she said.
She added that the situation in the Middle East had affected destinations far beyond the region, underlining the need for the global tourism industry to strengthen its resilience before crises emerge.
Africa among the strongest performers
Africa recorded 4% growth in international arrivals during the first half of 2026, placing it among the strongest-performing regions alongside Europe, which grew by 3%.
The Americas registered a 2% increase, although performance varied across sub-regions. Asia and the Pacific recorded 1% growth but remained 11% below 2019 levels, reflecting disruptions to air connectivity, higher airfares and uncertainty affecting regional demand.
Within Asia, North-East Asia recorded 3% growth, while South Asia saw arrivals decline by 5% and South-East Asia by 1%. The Middle East experienced the steepest regional decline, with arrivals falling by 22% as conflict directly disrupted tourism.
Although the conflict has affected international travel since early March, the easing of air traffic restrictions in May and June, following a ceasefire announcement, allowed some routes to reopen. Consumer confidence, however, recovered unevenly.
Full-year outlook downgraded
UN Tourism has lowered its forecast for international arrivals growth in 2026 to between 1% and 2%, down from its January projection of 3% to 4%.
The outlook will depend largely on how long the conflict continues and its impact on oil prices and inflation.
Travel behaviour is also expected to remain influenced by affordability and uncertainty. Travellers are increasingly likely to prioritise value for money and consider domestic holidays or destinations closer to home as higher prices and geopolitical risks shape their decisions.
