Namibia expected to copy Guyana oil playbook

Namibia is expected to take Guyana’s lead with regards to how it will manage investor expectations in the face of anticipated investment decisions in its nascent oil and gas sector, strategist Vusi Thembekwayo said.

He made the remarks following a recent visit to the South American nation, and said it allowed a model where Guyana was keen to work with international oil companies on a mutually beneficial basis, a model he predicted Namibia would follow.

“We want you here and we want you to do business here, but we do not want you here at any cost, that there are terms and conditions, that there are rules to how you will do business,” Thembekwayo said of the approach the Guyanese adopted.

It follows a historic find by ExxonMobil in 2015 of the Liza field, with over 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent identified in the offshore Stabroek Block.This transformation has made the nation one of the fastest-growing oil producers globally, with production surpassing 650,000 barrels per day earlier in the period and reaching over 900,000 barrels per day by late 2025.

Namibia is expected to mirror Guyana’s success, as evidenced by projected and confirmed finds in the Orange Basin by oil majors Shell, TotalEnergies, and Galp.“The most recent discoveries here in Namibia are going to force a similar dynamic, that we want you here, and that we want you to come and invest here, but that it is not by any means necessary,” he added.

According to Thembekwayo, the time was ripe for Namibia to build on its oil riches and not miss out on the next wave of development.“What is important in this moment and season is to keep the main thing the main thing. These resources are a once-in-a-lifetime find. The question is how do we extract them, multiply them, and build an oasis of a nation that will be very different from the nation that I have visited.”

Shifting his focus, Thembekwayo said markets in Africa were often overregulated.“We are overregulated, over-compliant, and under-innovated,” he said, urging institutions to move from a culture of default caution to one of productive enablement.

He added that Namibia’s competitive advantage is strengthened by its national character: “You have a beautiful country that has found a curious balance between being sufficiently open to outsiders and at the same time preserving what it means to be Namibian."

Standard Bank Namibia’s chief financial officer Arlington Matenda underscored the importance of evaluating the budget through a lens of long-term economic impact. “Our role as a leading financial institution extends beyond the financial sector. We carry a responsibility to contribute meaningfully to the progress of our nation,” he said.

The dialogue highlighted that confidence, capability, and coordinated execution remain essential for converting the budget’s intentions into measurable outcomes for the broader economy and for citizens across the country.