Agriculture contracts 0.2% in 2025 but recovers
The agricultural sector contracted by 0.2% in 2025, according to the Fiscal Strategy for the 2026/27–2028/29 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) published by the Ministry of Finance in February. This represents an improvement from the 2.7% contraction recorded in 2024.
According to the report, Namibia’s primary industries sector, which includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining and quarrying, contracted by 1.8% in 2024 before recovering to an estimated growth of 2.8% in 2025, largely driven by increased uranium and metal ore mining output. Agriculture, however, continued to contract within this broader primary sector recovery, recording a decline for a second consecutive year.
Agricultural performance in 2025
Livestock farming recorded the steepest decline, contracting by 16.1%. This was mainly because farmers chose to restock their herds following drought conditions in previous years, resulting in fewer cattle being marketed and lower livestock exports.
Crop farming grew by 35.7% in 2025, driven by favourable rainfall, which boosted yields from rain-fed crops.
Growth in the agricultural sector is projected to return to a positive 2% in 2026. Livestock farming is expected to grow by only 0.1% in 2026 as restocking efforts continue to limit the number of animals available for market.
Crop farming is projected to slow significantly to 6.5% in 2026, with erratic rainfall patterns cited as the primary constraint. The agricultural sector as a whole is expected to remain under pressure in 2026 before gathering momentum in the latter years of the MTEF.
In 2027, the sector is projected to grow by 2.8%, accelerating to 3.6% in 2028. Livestock farming is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2027 and 6.3% in 2028 as restocking efforts ease and more animals return to the market, boosting livestock exports. Crop farming is projected to grow by 4% in 2027 and 4.2% in 2028, supported by improved rainfall patterns and increased agricultural activity.
Water infrastructure and climate change
The government has identified several key water infrastructure projects expected to boost agricultural production over the MTEF period.
These include the Rundu Canal, the Oshakati Canal, the Ohangwena Aquifer and the Ondangwa–Omutsegonime pipeline expansion. All four projects are expected to boost output in the water and electricity sector, which is projected to grow by 6.9% in 2026, 6.7% in 2027 and 7% in 2028.
Climate change has been identified as a significant long-term threat to the agricultural sector and food security. A projected temperature rise of 3.3°C could reduce agricultural output by 27% without adaptation measures. With 40% of food currently imported, food security remains highly vulnerable to both domestic production shocks and international market conditions.
Required investment
To achieve long-term food security through 2050, annual investments of between 2.4% and 2.5% of GDP will be required.
Achieving a 30% reduction in climate-related damage will require adaptation spending of 0.1% of GDP, compared with only 0.01% of GDP required by regional peers, due to the country’s arid climate and vast rural geography.
Government spending on drought relief has reached 0.9% of GDP, with current adaptation spending described as largely reactive.
Identified mitigation strategies include investment in early warning systems and dedicated data centres, climate-resilient infrastructure such as desalination plants and water-efficient irrigation systems, and the establishment of contingency funds for drought and flood relief.
The historical record of climate-related agricultural disruptions highlights the scale of the risk. The 1991 drought affected more than 550 000 people and caused economic losses equivalent to 4% of GDP. The prolonged 2013–2016 drought impacted 450 000 people. Floods in 2011 displaced 60 000 people, and flooding now affects an estimated 70 000 people annually. The 2023 Population and Housing Census reported that natural disasters accounted for 6.1% of all deaths between October 2022 and September 2023
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Available funding
The government has allocated approximately N$903.1 million to Agriculture and Land Reform over the MTEF period, making it the second-largest recipient within the economic sector development budget after Mines and Energy, which receives approximately N$1.1 billion.
The allocation includes N$352.9 million in 2026/27, N$300.2 million in 2027/28, and N$350 million in 2028/29. Spending will be directed towards the Land Management Project, which focuses on developing the National Spatial Data Infrastructure and upgrading essential infrastructure for livestock and crop production.
The government has also identified agro-processing as a strategic priority, targeting expanded value-added agricultural production to strengthen domestic value chains and boost export earnings. Road network improvements in key agricultural areas are also planned to support the movement of produce.
The agricultural sector’s recovery is projected to contribute to overall GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026, rising to 3.3% in 2027 and 3.4% in 2028.
