Economy shakes off year-end slump
Namibia's economy grew 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, recovering sharply from near-stagnation at the end of last year, as a rebound in agriculture and strong consumer spending offset a severe contraction in diamond and metal mining.
The Namibia Statistics Agency's (NSA) first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures, analysed by Simonis Storm, show nominal output reaching N$70.9 billion, a reading broadly in line with annual growth of 1.7% recorded for the full year 2025.
The agricultural sector delivered the quarter's most striking reversal, expanding 12.1% after contracting 17.7% in the same period last year following severe drought conditions. Favourable La Niña-related rainfall improved livestock conditions and crop yields across key farming regions.
Wholesale and retail trade grew 9.3%, its strongest quarterly reading in several years, reflecting improved consumer sentiment, higher tourist arrivals and a recovery in real household incomes from the cost-of-living pressures of 2024.
Financial services expanded 7.2%, with banking deposits reaching N$170.1 billion, while fishing grew 7.4% as hake and horse mackerel quotas supported catch volumes and global seafood demand improved processing margins.
Mining drag
Against those gains, mining and quarrying contracted 12.2%, the sector's weakest performance in recent quarters, and remained the single largest drag on growth. Diamond output fell 18.6%, reflecting softness in the global rough diamond market and production scheduling at Namdeb and De Beers Namibia operations.
Metal ores contracted even more sharply, down 31.2%, as operational disruptions and lower ore grades affected output at key mines. The sole bright spot within mining was uranium, which grew 14.6%, supported by elevated spot and term contract prices and improved throughput at Rössing and Husab.
Despite the contraction, mining contributed N$9.6 billion in nominal terms, representing 13.5% of GDP, still the economy's single largest sectoral contributor in the quarter.
Investment signal
One of the most closely watched indicators in the release, gross fixed capital formation — which measures investment in productive assets, turned positive for the first time in two years, rising 3.4%. Simonis Storm said the reading was "the single most important structural signal in the release" and could foreshadow a broader investment cycle as planned capital expenditure in the oil and gas upstream sector begins to materialise.
TotalEnergies' final investment decision on the offshore Venus oil field, expected in August 2026, is identified as the defining catalyst for the medium-term resource investment outlook. If the decision proceeds on schedule, Simonis Storm said it was likely to lift investment activity, employment and services demand in a way that could push full-year growth toward the top of its forecast range.
Outlook
Simonis Storm maintained its full-year 2026 growth forecast at 2%–2.3%, saying the quarter one outturn was consistent with the midpoint of that range. The firm said the Venus final investment decision remained the most important potential catalyst for an upward revision, while a deepening mining contraction combined with the repo rate hike could cap growth closer to 1.8%.
