China deal? Namibia urges caution

Namibia has been advised to exercise extreme caution should it follow South Africa’s example and conclude a trade agreement with China, in order to secure meaningful export access to the world’s second-largest economy.

China and South Africa last week signed a framework agreement paving the way for negotiations on a new trade deal, as Africa’s largest economy seeks alternative markets following high import tariffs imposed by the United States and diplomatic tensions with the Donald Trump administration, according to the Trade Law Centre (Tralac).

Trade analyst Wallie Roux cautioned that Namibia would need to scrutinise the fine print of any agreement involving China to avoid repeating the mistakes of what he described as a one-sided arrangement aimed at boosting agricultural exports.

In 2019, Namibia became the first African country to obtain market access authorisation to export beef to China. Roux characterised the agreement as uneven, noting that it was later undermined by an outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease.

“Unlike other beef export agreements, the fine print included a clause stipulating that should a Lumpy Skin Disease outbreak occur in Namibia, beef exports to China would automatically be suspended,” Roux said.

He added that while exports initially increased, volumes began declining in 2023 and fell sharply again in 2025.

“Any such agreement may appear impressive on paper, but the real question is: what are the practical implications of the fine print?” he said. “Namibia serves as a classical example in this regard.”

Roux further warned that, given the structure of similar agreements, South African exports under the proposed framework would likely be product-specific and subject to stringent Rules of Origin (RoO) requirements. Agricultural goods, in particular, may need to be “wholly obtained” within South Africa’s geographical territory to qualify for preferential access.

“In this regard, any country contemplating participation must read the fine print very carefully,” he said.

Implications for SACU

Retired trade official Frikkie van der Merwe said the proposed deal, still at framework stage, was not expected to conflict with existing Southern African Customs Union (SACU) trade rules.

“At this stage, what was signed is simply a framework agreement. It sets the stage for negotiations that could facilitate Chinese investment in South Africa, with potential value-chain linkages to the rest of SACU, as well as duty-free access for certain South African exports to China,” Van der Merwe said.

He emphasised that the agreement does not undermine the SACU Common External Tariff regime, which governs imports into the customs union.

“Exports to other markets are not subject to a common tariff; these are determined by the importing jurisdiction,” he explained. “This is why some SACU members face tariffs on certain products under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), for example.”

The proposed framework

South Africa’s ministry of trade indicated that the agreement initiates negotiations towards granting selected South African goods — including fruit — duty-free access to the Chinese market. Officials have suggested the negotiations could be concluded by the end of March.

In return, China is expected to secure enhanced investment opportunities in South Africa, particularly in the automotive sector, where Chinese vehicle brands have recorded rapid sales growth.

The framework agreement forms part of broader efforts by several countries to diversify trade partnerships amid shifting United States trade policies.