Angola's oil lessons for Namibia

As Namibia moves towards first oil, Angola demonstrates how fiscal certainty, stabilisation clauses and streamlined approvals can unlock investment and accelerate upstream development.

Namibia has emerged as one of the world's most promising frontier oil and gas markets, with multi-billion-barrel discoveries positioning the country for first production by 2030.

Yet moving from discovery to commercial production requires more than resource potential. It requires an investment framework that provides fiscal certainty, reduces execution risk and supports long-term capital deployment at scale.

Angola offers one of Africa's clearest examples of how targeted upstream reform can reshape an entire sector.

These lessons are explored in Crude Oil: Power, Turnaround and Transformation in Angola by NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber (AEC), now available globally. The book examines how policy and fiscal reforms helped reposition Angola from a declining producer to one of Africa's leading upstream investment destinations.

Reform that reset Angola's upstream sector

Following years of declining production, Angola launched a wide-ranging reform programme aimed at revitalising both mature and frontier assets. By 2018, production had fallen by about 20% after an extended period without new licensing rounds, while imports accounted for roughly 80% of refined petroleum demand.

Since then, the country's trajectory has changed. Angola has attracted about US$70 billion in planned upstream investment, supported by renewed exploration activity and a new wave of offshore developments. Key milestones include the US$5.1 billion Greater PAJ development, which reached final investment decision (FID) in 2026, alongside the Begonia and CLOV Phase 3 projects, both of which entered production in 2025.

The Agogo FPSO is now producing, while the Kaminho development is targeting first oil around 2028.

Exploration activity is also gathering pace, with TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Shell securing new acreage in Benguela and Namibe, alongside continued onshore activity by independent operators including Afentra, Corcel and Etu Energias. Together, these developments reflect growing investor confidence in Angola's regulatory and fiscal framework.

From reform to investment certainty

Angola's turnaround was driven not only by geology but also by a deliberate effort to improve the quality and predictability of its investment framework. Since 2018, the country has introduced structural reforms, including the Natural Gas Law, Gas Monetisation Law, Permanent Offer framework and Marginal Fields legislation. Together, these measures streamlined licensing procedures, improved fiscal competitiveness and strengthened long-term certainty for investors.

Crucially, the reforms addressed several factors that underpin upstream investment decisions. Investors gained greater fiscal certainty through more predictable tax and royalty regimes, while stabilisation clauses provided contractual protection against unilateral fiscal or regulatory changes throughout the life of projects. Approval and permitting processes were also streamlined, reducing delays between discovery, FID and production and improving execution across the upstream value chain.

The reforms were further reinforced by greater institutional continuity within the regulatory system, helping preserve technical expertise and promote more consistent decision-making across successive policy cycles.

The 2018 Natural Gas Law established a dedicated framework for gas investment, opening new opportunities to monetise Angola's estimated 11 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. The Permanent Offer mechanism, introduced in 2021, further improved market efficiency by allowing continuous licensing outside formal bidding rounds, reducing negotiation timelines and improving the flow of investment opportunities.

Angola also introduced the Incremental Production Initiative to extend the life of mature fields and unlock stranded reserves. The initiative is expected to recover around 500 million additional barrels and extend field life by up to two decades, improving project economics while reducing investment risk.

A blueprint for Namibia's next phase

Namibia faces a similar, though distinct, challenge. While recent discoveries have established the country as a major frontier basin, sustaining investment beyond first oil will depend on building a regulatory framework anchored in fiscal certainty, stabilisation mechanisms and transparent permitting systems that support timely project execution.

Angola's experience suggests that fiscal incentives alone are unlikely to be enough. Regulatory predictability and the speed of project approvals are equally important in determining whether discoveries become producing assets.

Institutional continuity is also critical. Maintaining technical expertise and administrative capacity within regulatory authorities helps reduce uncertainty for investors and supports more efficient project approvals, both of which are essential in a capital-intensive upstream industry.

Angola has also strengthened domestic participation through its Local Content Law, introduced in 2020. The legislation has supported the growth of indigenous companies such as Etu Energias and CABSHIP, which now play increasingly significant roles across the value chain. Etu Energias alone completed nearly US$1 billion in mergers and acquisitions between 2022 and 2025 and is targeting production of 80,000 barrels a day by 2030, highlighting the growing role of local operators in supporting production and reducing operational risk.

Policy certainty drives capital

As Namibia approaches first oil, Angola's experience highlights a central lesson: geology may attract attention, but predictable and enforceable policy frameworks attract long-term investment. Stable regulation, transparent licensing, competitive fiscal regimes, stabilisation clauses, efficient permitting systems and institutional continuity all influence whether upstream potential is converted into sustained production.

"Angola's resilient and investor-friendly regulatory framework has attracted sustained investment across exploration, brownfield redevelopment and new offshore projects," says Ayuk.

"For Namibia, the opportunity is to build on its discoveries by embedding the fiscal certainty, stabilisation clauses and institutional capacity that give investors confidence to commit long-term capital."

As competition for upstream investment intensifies, Angola's experience offers one possible model for frontier producers. By combining resource potential with predictable and efficiently administered policy, Namibia could accelerate its transition from exploration success to sustained production, stronger local participation and long-term economic growth.