Africa’s case for a just transition
NJ Ayuk
Today, Africa contributes less than 5% of the world’s energy-related emissions, despite being home to 19% of the Earth’s population. By 2060, the continent’s population is expected to reach 28% of the global total. Yet, according to the African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report, its share of energy-related emissions is projected to remain a modest 9%.
When considering these statistics, it is evident that Africa’s responsibility for climate change is minimal. Nevertheless, Western advocates continue to demand a universal and rapid phase-out of fossil fuels under the banner of “Net-Zero.”
Little sense
While low per-capita energy use positions Africa to drive global decarbonisation, this development pathway must respect the unique needs of its people. Infrastructure limitations, including a lack of grid capacity and outdated transmission lines, make large-scale decarbonisation more challenging here than elsewhere. Decarbonisation efforts must occur alongside the fundamental need to expand energy access for the millions who still lack reliable electricity.
Addressing these challenges requires more than just building new assets; it requires modernising grids, improving regulatory environments, and fostering local expertise. Amid emissions regulations drafted by the International Maritime Organisation and the European Union, Africa has the potential to become a major green fuel supplier. However, this potential cannot be realised without significant investment in infrastructure upgrades.
Transitioning to a low-carbon economy requires substantial upfront capital, which many African nations struggle to secure due to perceived political and financial risks. Furthermore, nations reliant on fossil fuel exports must walk a fine line between economic stability and the transition to clean energy.
The rise of green hydrogen
The 2026 Outlook reports that, by 2035, Africa could produce over 9 million tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen annually. This is made possible by the continent’s vast solar and wind resources and its proximity to export markets.
Currently, major green hydrogen projects are concentrated in Namibia, South Africa, Mauritania, Egypt and Morocco. These nations, along with Kenya, launched the African Green Hydrogen Alliance (AGHA), which anticipates exports reaching 40 megatons by 2050.
Namibia: A leader in the sector, Namibia is developing the US$10 billion Hyphen project, aimed at exporting 300 000 tons of green hydrogen annually to Europe. Other ventures include the HyIron Oshivela ironworks and the Daures Green Hydrogen Village.
South Africa: Home to a national “Hydrogen Valley,” the country hosts the US$5.7 billion Coega Green Ammonia Project and Sasol’s Green Hydrogen Pilot in Sasolburg.
North Africa: Mauritania is pursuing “megaprojects” like Project Nour, while Morocco has developed a national strategy to facilitate exports to Europe via shared port infrastructure. Egypt is positioning the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCEZ) as a regional hub, boasting Africa’s first operational green hydrogen plant in Ain Sokhna.Unlocking mineral potentialTo unlock Africa’s downstream potential, the 2026 Outlook outlines several essential strategies:
Stable regulatory frameworks: Securing long-term investment requires predictable legal and fiscal environments and streamlined permitting processes.
Regional cooperation: Governments must invest in shared infrastructure, such as roads and renewable energy corridors, to overcome market fragmentation.
Local technical capacity: Bridging the skills gap through partnerships with universities and international agencies is vital for refining and processing.
Human rights and safety: Regulations must prioritise human dignity, criminalise child labour, and protect the local environment to avoid the pitfalls of previous extractive industries.
African leaders must embrace this moment to move up the value chain. By fostering sustained investment in infrastructure and governance, the continent can unlock economic value and lift nations out of energy poverty.
Today, Africa contributes less than 5% of the world’s energy-related emissions, despite being home to 19% of the Earth’s population. By 2060, the continent’s population is expected to reach 28% of the global total. Yet, according to the African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report, its share of energy-related emissions is projected to remain a modest 9%.
When considering these statistics, it is evident that Africa’s responsibility for climate change is minimal. Nevertheless, Western advocates continue to demand a universal and rapid phase-out of fossil fuels under the banner of “Net-Zero.”
Little sense
While low per-capita energy use positions Africa to drive global decarbonisation, this development pathway must respect the unique needs of its people. Infrastructure limitations, including a lack of grid capacity and outdated transmission lines, make large-scale decarbonisation more challenging here than elsewhere. Decarbonisation efforts must occur alongside the fundamental need to expand energy access for the millions who still lack reliable electricity.
Addressing these challenges requires more than just building new assets; it requires modernising grids, improving regulatory environments, and fostering local expertise. Amid emissions regulations drafted by the International Maritime Organisation and the European Union, Africa has the potential to become a major green fuel supplier. However, this potential cannot be realised without significant investment in infrastructure upgrades.
Transitioning to a low-carbon economy requires substantial upfront capital, which many African nations struggle to secure due to perceived political and financial risks. Furthermore, nations reliant on fossil fuel exports must walk a fine line between economic stability and the transition to clean energy.
The rise of green hydrogen
The 2026 Outlook reports that, by 2035, Africa could produce over 9 million tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen annually. This is made possible by the continent’s vast solar and wind resources and its proximity to export markets.
Currently, major green hydrogen projects are concentrated in Namibia, South Africa, Mauritania, Egypt and Morocco. These nations, along with Kenya, launched the African Green Hydrogen Alliance (AGHA), which anticipates exports reaching 40 megatons by 2050.
Namibia: A leader in the sector, Namibia is developing the US$10 billion Hyphen project, aimed at exporting 300 000 tons of green hydrogen annually to Europe. Other ventures include the HyIron Oshivela ironworks and the Daures Green Hydrogen Village.
South Africa: Home to a national “Hydrogen Valley,” the country hosts the US$5.7 billion Coega Green Ammonia Project and Sasol’s Green Hydrogen Pilot in Sasolburg.
North Africa: Mauritania is pursuing “megaprojects” like Project Nour, while Morocco has developed a national strategy to facilitate exports to Europe via shared port infrastructure. Egypt is positioning the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCEZ) as a regional hub, boasting Africa’s first operational green hydrogen plant in Ain Sokhna.Unlocking mineral potentialTo unlock Africa’s downstream potential, the 2026 Outlook outlines several essential strategies:
Stable regulatory frameworks: Securing long-term investment requires predictable legal and fiscal environments and streamlined permitting processes.
Regional cooperation: Governments must invest in shared infrastructure, such as roads and renewable energy corridors, to overcome market fragmentation.
Local technical capacity: Bridging the skills gap through partnerships with universities and international agencies is vital for refining and processing.
Human rights and safety: Regulations must prioritise human dignity, criminalise child labour, and protect the local environment to avoid the pitfalls of previous extractive industries.
African leaders must embrace this moment to move up the value chain. By fostering sustained investment in infrastructure and governance, the continent can unlock economic value and lift nations out of energy poverty.
