World tired of SA's focus on redressing the past, rumoured Trump ambassador pick says
President Donald Trump's possible pick for US ambassador to SA, Joel Pollak, says the country must abandon race-based policies and align with the US on Israel and China if it is to continue to benefit from aid and special trade arrangements.
Trump has yet to make his choice for ambassador. However, whether Pollak gets the job or not, he has great insight into how Trump sees SA. In recent weeks, Pollak - editor-at-large at Breitbart News and an influential figure within the MAGA movement - has been vocal about the implications of the Trump administration for SA.
On Monday, SA woke up in shock to a plummeting rand after Trump tweeted that he would cut all aid to SA due to the Expropriation Act, which he said had resulted in the "confiscation of land" and "massive human rights violations".
In an interview from California, where he lives, Pollak says that Trump's seemingly out-the-blue tweet about SA on Sunday was not unexpected and that the new president has a coherent and long-standing desire to force change in SA.
"Trump is going to play hardball," says Pollak.
"SA has adopted a set of economic and foreign policies that are at odds with Western norms, and he wants to see those policies change. For instance, black economic empowerment (BEE) is a huge problem for investors. In this country, businesses and governments are unravelling race-based policies. Trump ran on getting rid of these policies and received a record share of the vote from racial minorities. There is no appetite in the US for racial policies in investment or anywhere else," he says.
Closely linked to this is the land reform issue, a particularly strong concern of the American conservative movement, which has tracked SA's legislative developments around the expropriation act. Trade union Solidarity, which has campaigned against the Expropriation Act in the US, found a ready audience in the MAGA movement during Trump's last term.
In a piece for Breitbart on Monday, following Trump's tweet, Pollak accurately described the new Expropriation Act as similar to laws in the US, which enable the government to take land through "eminent domain" for public purposes. But at the same time, he threw into his introduction the spectre of land grabs, writing that "many fear (that the new law) could lead to Zimbabwe-style seizures of land owned by white citizens."
So, given the limitations the Expropriation Act has put on when land can be taken by the state, does he really think this is likely and possible?
"I think it could happen, and given SA's long indulgence of Zimbabwe, it would be unreasonable to think it couldn't happen. The threat of expropriation has definitely discouraged American investment in South Africa, and I can say that with direct knowledge of people who were considering investing in South Africa and then chose not to because SA was not firm with Zimbabwe."
He says the risk is underlined by SA's general policy stance.
"SA philosophical orientation generally is toward redistribution, whether it has the legal mechanisms to do it or not. Generally, when you look at the political debate in South Africa, it's very much about redressing the past... And the world is tired of it. The world has moved on. They want to know how South Africa will build a better future."
Trump also intends to act on long-standing American frustrations with SA's foreign policy stance, which have become more widely shared since his election, even across non-partisan lines.
The new administration strongly disapproves of SA's relationship with Russia and China through the BRICS, the ANC's frequent displays of support for Russia in the Ukraine war, its support for Hamas, and the SA government's court action against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Last year, SA narrowly missed being excluded from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) when Republican congressmen campaigned to have it excluded from the 2025 round of benefits.
According to Pollak, concerns about SA are now broader and deeper.
"A general and widely held sentiment is that SA is not co-operating with the US on the international stage. Even Democrats have been asking why SA is included in AGOA if it constantly helps Russia at a time when Russia is disrupting the international order with the war in Ukraine and by, essentially, offering aid and comfort to Hamas. That is universal and not just on the Right."
AGOA's 25-year lifespan expires this year, and Trump and US lawmakers will determine its future. African countries have benefited enormously, gaining duty-free access to the US market for over 6 000 products. SA and Nigeria have benefited the most, with SA increasing its exports – particularly motor vehicles and agricultural products - to the US threefold over the first 22 years of the deal.
Will Trump radically change AGOA or even do away with it?
"I think he's going to want to scrap it or revise it radically if it's going to be renewed at all. And there's also a question of South Africa's participation," he says, due to its status as a middle-income country.
One of Trump's big concerns is how China has succeeded in indirectly benefiting from AGOA through its involvement in African economies. The recent spat with Panama over the Panama Canal is instructive, where the US has said it will take back the canal, which it built because it is now operated by a Chinese company that has extended its influence over it.
"There's a sense that AGOA is being taken advantage of in the same way. Chinese firms are coming in and basically benefiting. The Trump administration doesn't want to give preferential trade to China through an African backdoor."
In the past, despite dissatisfaction with SA in the US political establishment, the US has opted to renew SA's membership of AGOA because the benefits are broadly shared by a number of constituencies that the US does not want to harm.
"There will still be a desire not to hurt small business owners and the farming sector, which will be a factor at some stage. But, Trump's initial moves are going to be very confrontational. If I were the SA government, I would definitely be on notice that this is not going to be something that can be smoothed over, and there's going to have to be some fairly dramatic changes in foreign and domestic policy."
As in many external relationships over the past 30 years, the ANC government has talked Left but walked, if not to the Right, in the centre. The pattern is well-established: ANC politicians and allies publicly spout anti-capitalist and anti-US sentiment to fire up their constituency but then belatedly send a delegation of moderates to Washington to explain and promote SA's "real" policy outlook and approach.
On Monday, Ramaphosa roped in DA leader John Steenhuisen and Solidarity—the two most vocal critics of the Expropriation Act—to help "explain" the law as well.
Steenhuisen said it was not true that the act (which it had furiously railed against last week) would allow the arbitrary seizure of land. It was "unfortunate" that some individuals had sought to portray it that way. Solidarity called on the US to punish the ANC rather than the country, as if the two could be separated.
It has been a rocky relationship, but the Democratic political establishment has repeatedly given SA the benefit of the doubt.
That will not fly anymore, says Pollak, and SA will have to rebuild its credibility. Its policies will be taken at face value. Not only that, but following the Trump victory, the politicians and bureaucrats who have lent an ear to SA in the past are no longer there to be lobbied. They were not elected this time around, and the administration is being swiftly cleaned out of Democrat loyalists.
Pollak won't comment on rumours that he is shortlisted to represent Trump in SA. However, he can be considered well-placed, being both a Trump loyalist and someone with first-hand knowledge of SA.
He was born in Johannesburg in 1977, shortly before his parents left the country for the US. He grew up in Chicago as a US citizen and returned to SA as an exchange student while at school. He also spent some time volunteering in Khayelitsha, where, among other things, he established a chess club in Site C, one of the township's poorest areas.
He returned to SA from 2000 to 2006, working in then-DA leader Tony Leon's office for four years. There, he met his future wife Julia, a labour economist and the daughter of prominent anti-apartheid activist Rhoda Kadalie.
Despite the disappointment at some of the failures of the transition to democracy, Pollak says the US would be wrong to write off SA.
"There are enough people investing in SA, trying to innovate and who care about it, so there's something to work with."
Trump's "tough love" could also do SA a favour, argues Pollak, by allowing it to move away from race-based policymaking on which it has staked so much but gained so little. Trump's proposals are often radical at first, says Pollak, but settle in a less radical place, after Trump "has shaken the box" and shifted perceptions.
In two short weeks, Trump has made clear that he plans to remake the world. It will be a fundamental reshaping of the global order, after which the world will look very different. Since Sunday's tweet, we have also learned that US-SA relations will not escape the reconfiguration.
Trump has yet to make his choice for ambassador. However, whether Pollak gets the job or not, he has great insight into how Trump sees SA. In recent weeks, Pollak - editor-at-large at Breitbart News and an influential figure within the MAGA movement - has been vocal about the implications of the Trump administration for SA.
On Monday, SA woke up in shock to a plummeting rand after Trump tweeted that he would cut all aid to SA due to the Expropriation Act, which he said had resulted in the "confiscation of land" and "massive human rights violations".
In an interview from California, where he lives, Pollak says that Trump's seemingly out-the-blue tweet about SA on Sunday was not unexpected and that the new president has a coherent and long-standing desire to force change in SA.
"Trump is going to play hardball," says Pollak.
"SA has adopted a set of economic and foreign policies that are at odds with Western norms, and he wants to see those policies change. For instance, black economic empowerment (BEE) is a huge problem for investors. In this country, businesses and governments are unravelling race-based policies. Trump ran on getting rid of these policies and received a record share of the vote from racial minorities. There is no appetite in the US for racial policies in investment or anywhere else," he says.
Closely linked to this is the land reform issue, a particularly strong concern of the American conservative movement, which has tracked SA's legislative developments around the expropriation act. Trade union Solidarity, which has campaigned against the Expropriation Act in the US, found a ready audience in the MAGA movement during Trump's last term.
In a piece for Breitbart on Monday, following Trump's tweet, Pollak accurately described the new Expropriation Act as similar to laws in the US, which enable the government to take land through "eminent domain" for public purposes. But at the same time, he threw into his introduction the spectre of land grabs, writing that "many fear (that the new law) could lead to Zimbabwe-style seizures of land owned by white citizens."
So, given the limitations the Expropriation Act has put on when land can be taken by the state, does he really think this is likely and possible?
"I think it could happen, and given SA's long indulgence of Zimbabwe, it would be unreasonable to think it couldn't happen. The threat of expropriation has definitely discouraged American investment in South Africa, and I can say that with direct knowledge of people who were considering investing in South Africa and then chose not to because SA was not firm with Zimbabwe."
He says the risk is underlined by SA's general policy stance.
"SA philosophical orientation generally is toward redistribution, whether it has the legal mechanisms to do it or not. Generally, when you look at the political debate in South Africa, it's very much about redressing the past... And the world is tired of it. The world has moved on. They want to know how South Africa will build a better future."
Trump also intends to act on long-standing American frustrations with SA's foreign policy stance, which have become more widely shared since his election, even across non-partisan lines.
The new administration strongly disapproves of SA's relationship with Russia and China through the BRICS, the ANC's frequent displays of support for Russia in the Ukraine war, its support for Hamas, and the SA government's court action against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Last year, SA narrowly missed being excluded from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) when Republican congressmen campaigned to have it excluded from the 2025 round of benefits.
According to Pollak, concerns about SA are now broader and deeper.
"A general and widely held sentiment is that SA is not co-operating with the US on the international stage. Even Democrats have been asking why SA is included in AGOA if it constantly helps Russia at a time when Russia is disrupting the international order with the war in Ukraine and by, essentially, offering aid and comfort to Hamas. That is universal and not just on the Right."
AGOA's 25-year lifespan expires this year, and Trump and US lawmakers will determine its future. African countries have benefited enormously, gaining duty-free access to the US market for over 6 000 products. SA and Nigeria have benefited the most, with SA increasing its exports – particularly motor vehicles and agricultural products - to the US threefold over the first 22 years of the deal.
Will Trump radically change AGOA or even do away with it?
"I think he's going to want to scrap it or revise it radically if it's going to be renewed at all. And there's also a question of South Africa's participation," he says, due to its status as a middle-income country.
One of Trump's big concerns is how China has succeeded in indirectly benefiting from AGOA through its involvement in African economies. The recent spat with Panama over the Panama Canal is instructive, where the US has said it will take back the canal, which it built because it is now operated by a Chinese company that has extended its influence over it.
"There's a sense that AGOA is being taken advantage of in the same way. Chinese firms are coming in and basically benefiting. The Trump administration doesn't want to give preferential trade to China through an African backdoor."
In the past, despite dissatisfaction with SA in the US political establishment, the US has opted to renew SA's membership of AGOA because the benefits are broadly shared by a number of constituencies that the US does not want to harm.
"There will still be a desire not to hurt small business owners and the farming sector, which will be a factor at some stage. But, Trump's initial moves are going to be very confrontational. If I were the SA government, I would definitely be on notice that this is not going to be something that can be smoothed over, and there's going to have to be some fairly dramatic changes in foreign and domestic policy."
As in many external relationships over the past 30 years, the ANC government has talked Left but walked, if not to the Right, in the centre. The pattern is well-established: ANC politicians and allies publicly spout anti-capitalist and anti-US sentiment to fire up their constituency but then belatedly send a delegation of moderates to Washington to explain and promote SA's "real" policy outlook and approach.
On Monday, Ramaphosa roped in DA leader John Steenhuisen and Solidarity—the two most vocal critics of the Expropriation Act—to help "explain" the law as well.
Steenhuisen said it was not true that the act (which it had furiously railed against last week) would allow the arbitrary seizure of land. It was "unfortunate" that some individuals had sought to portray it that way. Solidarity called on the US to punish the ANC rather than the country, as if the two could be separated.
It has been a rocky relationship, but the Democratic political establishment has repeatedly given SA the benefit of the doubt.
That will not fly anymore, says Pollak, and SA will have to rebuild its credibility. Its policies will be taken at face value. Not only that, but following the Trump victory, the politicians and bureaucrats who have lent an ear to SA in the past are no longer there to be lobbied. They were not elected this time around, and the administration is being swiftly cleaned out of Democrat loyalists.
Pollak won't comment on rumours that he is shortlisted to represent Trump in SA. However, he can be considered well-placed, being both a Trump loyalist and someone with first-hand knowledge of SA.
He was born in Johannesburg in 1977, shortly before his parents left the country for the US. He grew up in Chicago as a US citizen and returned to SA as an exchange student while at school. He also spent some time volunteering in Khayelitsha, where, among other things, he established a chess club in Site C, one of the township's poorest areas.
He returned to SA from 2000 to 2006, working in then-DA leader Tony Leon's office for four years. There, he met his future wife Julia, a labour economist and the daughter of prominent anti-apartheid activist Rhoda Kadalie.
Despite the disappointment at some of the failures of the transition to democracy, Pollak says the US would be wrong to write off SA.
"There are enough people investing in SA, trying to innovate and who care about it, so there's something to work with."
Trump's "tough love" could also do SA a favour, argues Pollak, by allowing it to move away from race-based policymaking on which it has staked so much but gained so little. Trump's proposals are often radical at first, says Pollak, but settle in a less radical place, after Trump "has shaken the box" and shifted perceptions.
In two short weeks, Trump has made clear that he plans to remake the world. It will be a fundamental reshaping of the global order, after which the world will look very different. Since Sunday's tweet, we have also learned that US-SA relations will not escape the reconfiguration.
