Venus to eclipse mining sector
An environmental and social impact assessment projects a stark economic reality for Namibia: the TotalEnergies Venus oil project will generate greater GDP contributions than the country's entire mining sector—a finding that raises both opportunity and caution about economic over-reliance on a single resource.
The comparative analysis by SLR Consulting reveals the unprecedented economic dominance a single oil field will exert over Namibia's economy. The Venus project alone could surpass the combined GDP contributions of diamond mining, uranium extraction, metal ores, and all other quarrying operations—industries that have historically formed the bedrock of Namibian economic activity.
A double-edged sword
This economic concentration creates a precarious dependency dynamic. Once production peaks in 2031, any subsequent decline in oil output will trigger a contraction in overall national GDP, even as other sectors continue growing at an estimated 3% annually.
"The impact of the Venus project will overshadow other sectors of the economy, even if it were to slow growth throughout its life once it starts showing declines after 2031," SLR Consulting said. The consultancy further warned that "oil production contributes such a large share to overall GDP that a decline in oil production actually leads to a decline in overall GDP despite the rest of the economy continuing to grow."
This structural vulnerability mirrors challenges faced by other resource-dependent economies, where commodity price volatility and production cycles can destabilise national finances.
Immediate economic boost expected
Despite longer-term concerns, the short-term economic stimulus is undeniable. Namibia's GDP is projected to surge between 11% and 16% in the year following first oil production, with the project expected to contribute between N$536 billion and N$800 billion—equivalent to US$30 billion to US$46 billion—over its 25-year operational lifespan.
The immediate years following first production will deliver the most dramatic economic gains, before the contribution subsequently declines as the project matures.
Production targets ambitious
TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanné indicated in 2024 that the Venus field could yield between 150,000 and 180,000 barrels of oil per day once production commences.
Speaking during the company's annual results presentation, Pouyanné emphasised the strategic priority of advancing the project towards production. He also signalled TotalEnergies' broader confidence in Namibia's petroleum potential, suggesting the company may pursue multiple additional projects in the country. "What is good for our company will be good for our shareholders," he said.
The comparative analysis by SLR Consulting reveals the unprecedented economic dominance a single oil field will exert over Namibia's economy. The Venus project alone could surpass the combined GDP contributions of diamond mining, uranium extraction, metal ores, and all other quarrying operations—industries that have historically formed the bedrock of Namibian economic activity.
A double-edged sword
This economic concentration creates a precarious dependency dynamic. Once production peaks in 2031, any subsequent decline in oil output will trigger a contraction in overall national GDP, even as other sectors continue growing at an estimated 3% annually.
"The impact of the Venus project will overshadow other sectors of the economy, even if it were to slow growth throughout its life once it starts showing declines after 2031," SLR Consulting said. The consultancy further warned that "oil production contributes such a large share to overall GDP that a decline in oil production actually leads to a decline in overall GDP despite the rest of the economy continuing to grow."
This structural vulnerability mirrors challenges faced by other resource-dependent economies, where commodity price volatility and production cycles can destabilise national finances.
Immediate economic boost expected
Despite longer-term concerns, the short-term economic stimulus is undeniable. Namibia's GDP is projected to surge between 11% and 16% in the year following first oil production, with the project expected to contribute between N$536 billion and N$800 billion—equivalent to US$30 billion to US$46 billion—over its 25-year operational lifespan.
The immediate years following first production will deliver the most dramatic economic gains, before the contribution subsequently declines as the project matures.
Production targets ambitious
TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanné indicated in 2024 that the Venus field could yield between 150,000 and 180,000 barrels of oil per day once production commences.
Speaking during the company's annual results presentation, Pouyanné emphasised the strategic priority of advancing the project towards production. He also signalled TotalEnergies' broader confidence in Namibia's petroleum potential, suggesting the company may pursue multiple additional projects in the country. "What is good for our company will be good for our shareholders," he said.
